In a few hours, the International Criminal Court (ICC) will decide Tuesday in the case of William Ruto. The Kenyan Vice President
Ruto is being prosecuted for killings, persecutions and deportations during the post-election violence of 2007.
What’s going to happen. My little finger tells me that there is a 70% chance that he will be acquitted. Simply because the file was not good. Many witnesses went back on their statement and the investigation was not well conducted.
And for the remaining 30%, the judges can ask the defense to bring other witnesses. And the trial continues.
For Fadi el Abdallah, spokesman for the ICC, judges can declare a nonsuit, acquit Mr. Ruto, requalify the facts, request a stay of proceedings or reject the applications.
In other cases, there is either an acquittal or a conviction, but in the Ruto trial, there will be either the acquittal or the continuation of the trial.
But other parameters will play. Politically, given the ever-increasing threat of the African Union withdrawing from the Treaty of Rome, the ICC could acquit itself. Probabalement. When there are no more heads of state judged in The Hague, Africa will make less noise.
And my little finger also tells me that the time has probably come for the ICC to turn the page and start on a solid foundation after getting rid of all files Luis Moreno Ocampo.